UKRAINE-RUSSIA
Ukraine has escalated its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure with coordinated strikes deep inside Russia. This marks a shift toward strategic targeting of critical assets, increasing escalation risks and exposing new vulnerabilities for both sides.
Deliberate targeting and stress-testing of critical infrastructure—physical, digital, and institutional—has defined the last 24 hours, with new baselines for risk and escalation emerging across multiple domains.
HOUTHI-RED-SEA
Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have driven marine insurers to sharply raise premiums or withdraw coverage, amplifying operational risk for global trade routes. This repricing exposes systemic vulnerabilities in supply chains and raises stakes for regional security.
PHARMA-GLOBALHEALTH
A pharmaceutical firm's universal influenza vaccine breakthrough signals potential structural shifts in public health strategy, vaccine markets, and pandemic preparedness—raising both transformative opportunities and systemic risks.
SOUTH-ASIA-POWER-GRIDS
A record heatwave is overwhelming South Asia's power grids, causing widespread outages that disrupt critical infrastructure and expose deep systemic vulnerabilities. Authorities face acute trade-offs as cascading effects threaten public health, stability, and economic activity.
JAPAN-SOUTH-KOREA
Japan and South Korea's expanded military exercises mark a structural shift in Northeast Asian security dynamics, exposing new risks for regional stability as both states deepen cooperation amid rising tensions with China and North Korea.
EU-AI
The EU has begun enforcing its AI Act with new regulatory guidelines, shifting from legislation to implementation. This tests the EU's ability to harmonise digital governance amid industry pushback, national divergence risks, and global competitive pressures.
BLACK-SEA-WHEAT
A sudden disruption to Black Sea wheat shipping has triggered global price spikes and exposed structural vulnerabilities in food systems. The situation threatens both immediate supply stability and longer-term trust in international trade corridors.
IRAN-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION
Iran’s presidential election marks a pivotal stress test for regime cohesion following Raisi’s death. Elite contestation and public disengagement heighten risks of instability; outcomes will shape both domestic order and Iran’s approach to regional confrontation.
CHINA-WESTERN-INFRASTRUCTURE
China has executed a coordinated cyber operation targeting Western critical infrastructure for persistent access and disruption capability. This marks a shift toward systemic pre-positioning for potential conflict, exposing new vulnerabilities and raising escalation risks.
US-FEDERAL-RESERVE-GLOBAL-FINANCE
The US Federal Reserve's signal of prolonged higher interest rates marks a structural shift in global finance. This recalibration drives volatility, raises default risks, and forces worldwide policy adaptation—reshaping risk assessments across economies.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts and systemic risk to state function. The campaign threatens to shift the conflict into a war of infrastructure attrition with broad implications for resilience and escalation.