China conducts large-scale military exercises near Taiwan following political developments

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Big Picture

This is a major escalation in cross-Strait tensions, marked by China’s initiation of large-scale, multi-domain military exercises around Taiwan. The event signals a deliberate shift in Beijing’s approach to coercion and deterrence, directly responding to recent political changes in Taiwan. The scale and proximity of these maneuvers represent a significant departure from previous patterns, raising the baseline risk for regional security and crisis management.

What Happened

In the immediate aftermath of Taiwan’s presidential inauguration—seen by Beijing as a move toward greater independence—China launched complex military exercises involving air, naval, and other PLA branches in areas surrounding Taiwan. These drills are larger and closer to Taiwan’s territorial boundaries than prior exercises. Beijing has explicitly framed the actions as a response to “separatist activities,” targeting both Taipei and external actors, especially the United States and its allies. The situation is ongoing, with elevated military activity and intensified diplomatic signaling.

Why It Matters

This episode exposes a structural shift in the cross-Strait security environment. China’s actions normalize high-intensity military pressure on Taiwan, increasing the risk of accidental clashes and eroding the ambiguous status quo that has previously helped manage tensions. The exercises test the credibility of US security commitments and regional alliances, while forcing Taiwan into a defensive posture with limited options. The situation accelerates the regional arms race and heightens uncertainty for critical infrastructure and supply chains.

Strategic Lens

China seeks to reassert deterrence and reinforce its claim over Taiwan through visible demonstrations of military capability, leveraging both domestic legitimacy and international signaling. Beijing faces the challenge of maintaining pressure without triggering uncontrollable escalation or direct intervention by the US and allies. Taiwan must balance reassurance of its population with restraint to avoid provocation, constrained by its limited military capacity and economic ties to China. The US and partners are incentivized to show support for Taiwan while managing escalation risks; their responses are shaped by alliance dynamics, domestic considerations, and the imperative to avoid direct conflict with China. All actors operate under significant uncertainty, with limited ability to control escalation once certain thresholds are crossed.

What Comes Next

Most Likely: A period of managed escalation persists, with China sustaining high-intensity exercises but avoiding direct violations of Taiwan’s territorial space. Taiwan maintains heightened readiness and diplomatic outreach while refraining from provocative countermeasures. The US and allies provide visible but measured support without overtly preparing for intervention. Diplomatic channels are used to clarify red lines and de-escalate tensions after several days, resulting in stabilization at a higher level of alertness but with deepened mistrust and an increased likelihood of future crises.

Most Dangerous: Miscalculation or cascading pressures could trigger uncontrolled escalation—such as an inadvertent PLA incursion or cyberattack prompting a defensive response from Taiwan. Domestic political dynamics reduce leaders’ flexibility on all sides, while US moves to uphold credibility further raise stakes. Limited kinetic exchanges or blockades could quickly expand into economic warfare, cyberattacks, and information operations, making de-escalation extremely difficult. This pathway risks regional or global conflict with severe consequences for supply chains, financial stability, and international security guarantees.

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