RUSSIA-UKRAINE-ENERGY
Russia has launched its largest coordinated attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since winter 2022–23, causing major disruptions. This marks a structural escalation aimed at degrading Ukraine’s resilience while testing Western support under mounting constraints.
US-RUSSIA-SANCTIONS
The US move to extend sanctions beyond Russia to third-party enablers in the Ukraine conflict signals a major geoeconomic escalation. This raises risks of global economic fragmentation, retaliation by targeted states, and challenges for enforcement and alliance management.
Escalation across military, economic, and technological domains is eroding established guardrails, normalizing higher-risk behaviors, and amplifying the potential for cascading systemic shocks.
UNSC-SUDAN
The UNSC's failure to mandate a ceasefire in Sudan exposes deep great power divisions, undermines collective security credibility, and risks entrenching violence and regional instability as humanitarian conditions deteriorate.
WHO-DENGUE
WHO’s alert on global dengue escalation marks a shift from regional outbreaks to a systemic transregional threat. Structural drivers are outpacing containment frameworks, exposing health system vulnerabilities and raising risks for governance, mobility, and trade.
US-CHINA-RARE-EARTHS
A critical rare earth shortage has disrupted US semiconductor manufacturing, exposing persistent supply chain vulnerabilities tied to Chinese dominance. The situation threatens cascading impacts across technology sectors and intensifies strategic competition.
JAPAN-SOUTH-KOREA
Japan and South Korea have agreed to deepen security cooperation in response to North Korean provocations and Chinese assertiveness. This strategic shift alters regional dynamics, strengthens deterrence, but raises risks of domestic backlash and external escalation.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian strikes on Ukrainian grain export infrastructure have caused a sharp rise in global wheat prices, exposing structural vulnerabilities in food supply chains and increasing risks to food security and political stability in import-dependent regions.
EU-CHINA
The EU’s provisional tariffs on Chinese EVs mark a pivotal shift toward protectionism in green tech, exposing both industrial vulnerabilities and risks of broader trade conflict with China. The dispute threatens supply chains and could slow climate transition progress.
CHINA-TAIWAN
China’s large-scale military exercises near Taiwan mark a deliberate escalation following political changes on the island. The situation raises baseline risks for miscalculation, tests US commitments, and normalizes heightened military pressure in the region.
ISRAEL-GAZA
Israel’s intensified operations in Rafah test the limits of international law and humanitarian norms under active conflict conditions, exposing structural risks for regional stability and precedent-setting erosion of legal constraints on state military action.
US-FEDERAL-RESERVE-GLOBAL-RATES
The US Fed’s commitment to prolonged higher rates signals a structural shift in global monetary policy. This recalibration exposes vulnerabilities across financial systems, real economies, and politics—forcing broad strategic adjustment under heightened systemic risk.